Understanding the Macro Market Direction

Hey there,

I thought it would be good to provide more context around the Crypto 100x Blueprint Checklist that you downloaded. There are 7 total blog posts on my newsletter website about each topic within the checklist so we can dive deeper and understand the PDF better.

Why is the market direction so important?

Market direction tells us the path of least resistance. It’s really hard to force investments to make money when you don’t control the companies (specifically the crypto projects), the government budget or money supply, and the overall sentiment of millions of crypto investors. How could you possibly control all of this??

Because you can’t control these variables, you must learn to understand them at the base level and pivot your investments accordingly. We will never time every market change perfectly, but there is quite a bit of history in the market showcasing what has happened and what the probability of it happening again could be.

Ok stay with me here…

So far, every 4ish years Bitcoin goes up and comes down. Altcoins go up and come down. New projects rise and fade away. Hype and fear all move in cycles. Watch this play out year over year, month over month, and through every big piece of black swan news. Retail investors always act the same way in principle.

What you need to know is:

1. Where is global liquidity going?

2. Where is Bitcoin going?

3. Where are altcoins going?

4. What time in the overall money/business cycle is this?

5. What time in the crypto cycle is this?

These 4-5 simple questions can put you lightyears ahead of the crypto investment crowd. So how do you answer these questions without having a PhD in quantitative financial analysis?

Just listen to the quant analysts and do what they say….haha no I’m joking (partially)

What you should really do is recognize who you are. You’re a retail investor and that’s ok (so am I!). After you recognize who you are, you simply just analyze these questions from a retail investors viewpoint. You don’t need to get super technical, and I find that the more in depth I get, the more in my own way I get.

Let’s try to answer the first question together: Where is global liquidity going?

To answer this question, let’s say we are in 2024 going into 2025. Simply type into Google, “where is global liquidity going in 2025?”.

A lot smarter people are paid a lot more money by very big investment firms to answer these questions; let’s just find their answers and graphs like the one below. Global liquidity is slowly expanding, even though it doesn’t feel like it.

You can also get on X (Twitter) and follow some amazing accounts that are providing in depth analysis on the market trends. Find the analysts and combine their ideas with your ideas.

Another great Google search query is, “US federal monetary policy 2025?”. You don’t even need to type a full sentence. Just let the Google AI help you. You will get amazing answers like the below image showing that rates are getting cut.

If you don’t know what happens to crypto (and all assets) when rates get cut, just ask Google again. Hint: they typically go up

Lastly, let’s think about where crypto is in its current cycle. The easiest way to do this is to look at the chart, or think about when the Bitcoin halving was. Every time that BTC has halved, the price went up the following year.

If you’re ever questioning what time in the crypto cycle are we in, just check out the chart and see if we are post halving, pre halving, just hit an ATH or just hit a cycle low.

What I like to do is sort of get an expectation of where all of these scenarios are at so I can have a broad stroke understanding of where the market is going.

“Oh, the government is lowering rates”

“Oh, Bitcoin is in its post halving year”

“Oh, altcoins are bottoming against their BTC valuations”

Align as many of these ideas together to form a highly confident position on the crypto market. As of writing this email, we are in late 2024. The expectation over the next year is that the government will lower rates a little more, altcoins will outperform Bitcoin, and sometime late 2025 will be an optimal time to sell crypto.

With all “expectations”, there are deviations from the expectation. This is where retail traders get shaken up. If you knew the outcome in 2025-2026 and the general trend of the market, would you even worry if there was a deviation….

Would a black swan event even bother you? This is what we are trying to accomplish with our broad stroke analysis on market direction. Build confidence and eliminate negative fear.

I know you’re thinking, “but I don’t know where the market is going…”

Yea that’s true on a specific time period or specific day or specific graph. You don’t know the specifics and you can’t say where the top is or what month crypto peaks.

But you can say with confidence, the market is going up over time…the market is going down over time….money is expanding in the economy….historically this is what happens…

You can do these things, and you can be generally right. And that’s all you need to start this amazing 100x journey. Knowing general market expectations and direction allows you to take the big 100x risk without stress and fear and questioning, and that’s the first step.

Don’t just take it from me. I encourage you to get on X and absorb some information. Lots of analysts are putting their opinions out there for free. I like Ben Cowan, CryptoRUs, and a bunch of others to bounce my ideas off of.

Lastly, an amazing question to ask yourself is:

Do you think Bitcoin continues to go up, and do you think that fiat currency continues to inflate?

Whatever your answer to this is will help you to understand the overall market.

Investing is not really an hourly and daily grind. Look at it from the weeks, months, and years so that you can identify the trend and direction of the broader ecosystem.

Here’s a link to email/post number 2 of the Crypto 100x Blueprint:

We will be talking about the importance of finding a sector in crypto that you love so you can have a good time diving into the details and finding good projects.

You can always send me a DM on X if you have further ideas/questions here.

Thanks,

Dawson