Crypto sentiment has been shaky lately. There’s uncertainty in the air, talk of tariffs, inflation pressures, and the ever-present fear that the market could roll over into a bear cycle sooner than expected. But here’s the thing: history, macroeconomic trends, and on-chain data all tell us that the bull market still has plenty of room to run.

Let’s break down why this isn’t the time to panic, and why the next six months could still bring massive opportunities.

Reason 1: We’re Only Halfway Through The Cycle

Every major crypto cycle follows a familiar structure: Bitcoin leads, altcoins follow, and eventually, the market overheats before a prolonged downturn. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets last 12-18 months after the halving before topping out. Specifically, the last two Bitcoin bull markets lasted around 152 to 154 weeks from Bitcoin’s bottom to top.

The current Bitcoin bull run has only lasted about 124 weeks, which historically means the cycle should not be over. If history holds, this means we could have another 30 weeks (about 7 months) of upside before we see the cycle’s true top. Betting against the cycle right now means betting that this time is fundamentally different. Could that happen? Sure. But the probability leans heavily in favor of the cycle playing out like it always has. 7 months would put us right around November 2025, which is pretty crazy considering that Bitcoin peaked in November 2021, December of 2018, and November of 2013. Right on cue with this analysis.

Reason 2: M2 Money Supply is Breaking New Highs

One of the biggest tailwinds for Bitcoin has always been money supply expansion. The more liquidity there is in the system, the more capital flows into speculative assets like crypto. Right now, M2 money supply (a measure of total liquidity in the economy) is breaking new all-time highs.

Historically, major increases in M2 have coincided with bullish trends in Bitcoin. More money in the system means more capital seeking returns. With traditional assets like bonds and real estate struggling, Bitcoin stands to benefit as a new asset class for investors. Below you can see the M2 line in yellow breaking into a new all time high.

If liquidity continues to expand, it would be unusual for Bitcoin to top out this early in the cycle. The environment still favors risk-on assets, and Bitcoin remains one of the strongest performers in that category. The below chart is one I have been following very closely from ColinTalksCrypto on X.

Many analysts debate over the best offset to use when matching M2 to BTC price movements, but the popular ones are 30 days, 6 weeks, 70 days, and 108 days. Basically all you need to know is that M2 is leading Bitcoin into a direction historically, and as M2 continues to break its own all time high, we could expect Bitcoin to continue to follow it as it has been doing over the past.

If we use a 108 day offset for M2 over Bitcoin, this could mean that by late April or early May, Bitcoin will start a new move upwards possibly surpassing its all time high around $108,000. From the day Bitcoin starts this move, it would have a runway of around 100 days, or longer to catch up to M2. This could mean that if the rally starts in May of 2025, you could expect Bitcoin to continue to rise through the majority of the summer months (and that’s only if M2 ceases to continue expanding).

Reason 3: No Major Risk Indicators Are Flashing Red

There’s always a point in the market cycle when on-chain data and risk indicators start to suggest that a top is near. Right now? We’re not seeing it. Below is one of my favorite Bitcoin risk indicators called the BTI - Bitcoin (BTC) Top Indicator. For reference, you can see how hard this indicator flashed over the last 3 cycles. Today…..absolutely nothing of merit to show indicating that Bitcoin is not risky at all for metrics tracked.

Could a correction happen? Of course. But the signs of a cycle ending blow off top simply aren’t there yet. If Bitcoin deviated from all other cycles and put its top in back in January 2025, then this would be an anomaly in the history of Bitcoin

Even in the Worst Case Scenario, Crypto is Still a Long Term Play

Let’s entertain the bear case for a moment. Say the market does roll over early, and this cycle ends sooner than expected. Would that be the end of crypto? Far from it.

• We’d likely see a one year reset period, just like in past cycles.

• A new bottom would form, presenting another buying opportunity.

• The cycle would start over, and those who stayed patient would reap the rewards in the next bull run.

Crypto isn’t a one time event; it’s a repeating cycle. If $108k Bitcoin was the top for the 2025 bull market, that honestly would be so bad. You wouldn’t make incredible life changing altcoin gains that we all dream of, but we would be able to start the next cycle with quite an easy transition and buying opportunity.

Most investors who are fearful that the top is in, have probably invested just too much money in either crypto as a whole or into speculative altcoins. If the recession hits (which I don’t think it will right now), and we enter a crypto bear market without Bitcoin reaching a new all time high, I would simply focus on the next best time to buy the asset.

I would watch the 30 and 40 week moving averages on the weekly chart. Bitcoin could fall below these averages signaling a bear market or brief downturn. When Bitcoin starts to rally back above these moving averages I would consider that the next bull run is starting.

The bull market isn’t over. The data suggests we still have time. Liquidity trends remain favorable. On-chain indicators aren’t flashing red. And even if the worst case scenario plays out, we’re just one cycle away from new opportunities. What’s so bad about waiting to the next cycle when it feels like we’ve been in this current cycle for far too long already haha. Oh, also apparently the US will be finding strategic ways to buy 1 million BTC (so that’s pretty bullish).

This isn’t the time to panic. This is the time to stay focused, pay attention to market signals, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. The next six months could still deliver some of the biggest gains of the cycle if you’re positioned to take advantage of them.

So take a deep breath. The game isn’t over yet. If something changes I will do my best to let you know my thoughts.

Thanks,

Dawson