The S&P500. Have you heard of it? I hope so because it broke its all time high on Friday and there is no stopping a train that is moving. Once an object of this size is in motion, what’s going to stop it?

Also, yes, crypto will benefit from higher stock prices. But what exactly is fueling a rally of this size?

What’s Fueling This Rally?

War..recession..tariffs..general uncertainty about what is going to be posted next on X. There’s a lot of reasons to be bearish on this market and consider this a false rally that is unsustainable. But for every bear thinking this, there is a hidden, bullish truth that one must contend with.

The market is going up for some reason even if we don’t understand that reason. Think about the Covid recovery. Did anyone expect it? No. Were most people left on the sidelines as they thought “there’s no way this is real right now”? Yes they were.

I am not 100% sure the exact cause of this rally, and to be honest, I don’t really need to know in order to make massive profits. If I had to guess, it is because the market is forward looking. Up ahead are some rate cuts at the end of 2025 and a probable end to quantitative tightening along with those rate cuts. We probably have some sort of stealth QE around the corner, and then money will flow into more risk assets.

All of this is complied with the ideas that investor confidence remains higher after the tariffs really never went into huge effect, the Iran Israel war seems to be at a halt, and President Trump is being very vocal about the direct he wants the economy to go.

This seems to be driving investor confidence that the future looks bright, which means the market is going up. This also comes after a nice retrace on the general market in early 2025 allowing for the market to digest the gains of 2023-2024.

But really we can get all this information, and more, from just looking at some silly charts.

Why Are ATH’s Important?

Now some of you reading this have a fear of all time highs. I get that. I used to have that. What I have learned though is that all time highs tend to bring more all time highs.

For instance, since about 1929, the SP500 has continued to put in all time highs. Every time Bitcoin hits an all time high, like when it hit $70k in March 2024. It subsequently follows that up with more higher highs because of the momentum being built.

Since Netflix broke its ATH in mid 2024, it has continued to put in new all time highs.

If you would have bought Palantir at all time highs, you would be in insane profit right now. But why does buying at all time highs work, and when does it not?

Buying at all time highs works because you have a guaranteed showing of momentum and force. As a trader, or long term investor, you want to be riding the winning stocks. You want to ride Apple and Microsoft as they built their fortunes. You don’t want to hold them as they crash and burn.

The all time highs list gives a showing of momentum and force and when that kicks in, it is really hard to stop.

ATH’s are important to buy:

1. At the beginning of a bull market when things are just underway

2. If a cup and handle or breakout base has formed and the ATH is the breakout point (this reduces risk)

3. If volume increases as you break all time highs and continues to show good buy pressure

ATH’s are bad to buy if:

1. It is the end of a bull market and in the late stages like Bitcoin in early 2022

2. There’s no low risk entry point (like a cup and handle) and you are buying very extended prices

3. Volume is not supporting the broader move to all time highs and further. If volume is down significantly either wait to see if volume supports or recognize that something might be broken.

How Does This Benefit Crypto and Stocks?

The SP500 breaking to new ATH's does quite a few things for the broader market.

1. Stocks will rip much higher because they are the SP500 index

2. Investors will pile in after a few months leading to overall higher prices

3. Crypto will get more recognition as investors pile in searching for greater levels of return that they missed out on because they didn’t buy at ATHs

4. An appetite for risk will increase and altcoins will be primed

This lines up really nicely with the fact that BTC is casually chilling at about $107k right now very close to its own all time high as the SP500 breaks its all time high. As Bitcoin makes its next leg up, we will roll into Q3 deeper into this sarcastically amazing crypto cycle we have seen so far.

Theoretically, we are nearing the point where Bitcoin dominance breaks down, altcoins will start to maintain pace with Bitcoin, and then rally beyond most investors dreams. None of this happens without a consistent bullish trend led by the leading stock indices. Then Bitcoin. Then alts.

So yes, all time highs are here for many assets, but that doesn’t meant that the ride is over. I actually think that this ride is just getting started. While Bitcoin might top out much sooner than everything else given its amazing multi-year run its been on, we are just seeing the start of a new uptrend in stocks that will bleed into altcoins as this narrative of rate cuts and QE starts to unfold (even better if war is resolved and markets have long term confidence in global economies).

All of this can be disproven if rate cuts don’t happen or if the SP500 (or Bitcoin) rolls over back below all the key moving averages and levels we have been looking at, but I think the bullish viewpoint is the place to be right now until proven otherwise.

We’ve been waiting for this moment, and it seems it’s finally here. Don’t fear the all time highs as they typically bring more all time highs and more gains.

Remember: Stocks, crypto, and indexes at all time highs early in a bull market are expensive for a reason.

People want them. And when people bring demand, then price goes up. If you want to buy the best investments, then you will have to pay up for them, but it is worth it.

Thanks,

Dawson