This has been a long time coming, and we’ve talked about it quite a bit, but the real altcoin season is having small hints of starting. I have been talking quite a bit about personal growth, general investments, and entrepreneurship, but I think it’s time we get back into some solid crypto foundational work.

It seems like big players are waking up to the idea that Ethereum (and other altcoins) has opportunities that Bitcoin does not. Each cycle we have these themes of people making money, and then wanting more money, and then driving risk up which means pushing further away from Bitcoin (the safe asset), and then naturally people will feel behind in their gains so they pursue more risk and so on. This is how bull runs and especially things like altcoin season get kicked off.

Ever since about late 2022 - early 2023, Bitcoin has been on a roll. It dominated the whole cryptoverse and basically outperformed a majority of stocks, indexes, and other investment vehicles. It is my opinion that Bitcoin is getting a little boring for some investors that have made a good chunk of money on it and it is getting a bit expensive for investors who now realize it is a good investment.

This is how the path of Ethereum, altcoins, and a falling Bitcoin dominance level can show up.

Bitcoin’s Price Action and Bitcoin Dominance

As we said before, Bitcoin has been a menace to the market by sucking up all the gains in the cryptoverse and outperforming a majority of other assets. There is reason to believe though, as we look deeper into its current dominance, that this train is about to derail (not in a huge way).

Below you can see the price action of BTC. Quite beautiful that it could go from $15k to $115k in a few years. Currently, it seems like Bitcoin has been faltering to break its new ATH around $121k and has retraced back down to around the $110k area.

The good thing about this is that it gives BTC time to digest its new found price. I would be careful and watch how it plays in this $101k to $112k range as a break below the 30 & 40 week moving averages could spell a big warning sign. The healthiest thing that could happen is BTC getting back above $120k. All of this is to say that Bitcoin has done tremendous and it shouldn’t be shocking to see other assets take the lead for a while.

As BTC is faltering/retracing just slightly, the rest of the market (altcoins) is getting an opportunity to catch up to the king. We can see that below with Bitcoin dominance falling below its key 10, 30, & 40 week moving averages. Does this mean that Bitcoin is over? NOOOOOOO!

I think this means that a shift is occurring and volatility between the two sides is to be expected. One day dominance will be up, the next it will be down, but this area in between is always a little shaky. Realistically, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin dominance came back up to the 60% mark before dropping violently again. If we see a major rejection of BTC.D against the 60% level, it could mean a big shift in assets held by investors.

Ethereum’s Price Action Leading Altcoins

In order for Ethereum to have its rise, something else must fall, specifically Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D). Ethereum has many strengths over Bitcoin mostly related to the fact that it is more easily programmable with smart contracts. This means that VC firms and entrepreneurs can use the chain to build value in more creative ways (like lending, farming, gaming, etc.) than Bitcoin has. This naturally brings eyes to ETH.

“Why must Bitcoin dominance fall though for Ethereum to rise further?” Because the total crypto market cap can only ever be 100%. Today, using the key 10, 30, & 40 week moving averages, we can see that Bitcoin dominance is losing its grip on the total crypto market cap.

As Bitcoin dominance falls, this gives Ethereum the opportunity to make up ground and eat up its new share of the total crypto market cap. As Bitcoin was rising in price for the last few years, it subsequently pulled a lot of the blue chip altcoins up with it. See Ethereum’s price over the last few years below. Price goes from $800 to $4k while Bitcoin dominance rose and nobody really even paid major attention to ETH.

This isn’t bad though that ETH is pulled up in price. It actually is good as it has built this huge launch pad for Ethereum to sit on top of. As we see ETH get above the major down slopping trend line, it wouldn’t be a shocker if it retraced back to the trend line for support around the $4k level. What we are seeing in BTC.D can coincide with ETH’s price by giving both a break from the direction they have been moving. BTC dominance can come back up and retest 60% while ETH goes back down and retests $4k.

Positioning For The Expected Bull Run

So what do you do with this information and what if it doesn’t work out this way. Here’s two outcomes I am planning on and a third to keep in your back pocket:

1. The plan works out exactly as laid out - BTC.D goes back up to 60% as ETH tests $4k; what I would do is wait for BTC.D to get rejected off of 60% and then switch all BTC for ETH

2. The plan breaks horribly and does the opposite - BTC.D fails to be rejected at 60% and actually goes back up to like 66%; just don’t do anything, leave all BTC as BTC and forget about ETH, give the assets time to show you what they are doing because our thesis was false

3. The retest doesn’t happen, BTC.D drops off a cliff, ETH rockets - Then you just trade your BTC for ETH at the best price you can to jump on the train; crypto is hard and leading stocks often move without a “good” price to get in. If this happens, you just have to find a lower risk entry to get on the train while its moving and before it left the track

You might also be wondering, “what if I don’t hold any BTC or ETH, what does this mean for me?” Pretty simple, you just play on the ETH side of things because if ETH starts winning then sooner or later the gains will trickle down the altcoin charts.

First Bitcoin moves, then Ethereum moves, then as people make money and find more risk to take and more people join the ride, smaller and smaller altcoins get their shot. If you’re all in on ADA or SOL or SNEK even, you just have to wait for that trickle down of capital to show up, which if Bitcoin dominance is falling, it eventually will.

This is the BIG trade that is occurring right now that I don’t personally thing a lot of people are ready for or watching. I think it’s the big one because it effectively shifts us from a BTC heavy space to a more risk on moonboi space. Risk on means game on and gains are more profound. This also is lining up really well with the possibility that we start getting rate cuts in September and maybe November to round out 2025.

It probably won’t play out exactly like I’ve said, but this is exactly what I am watching for my own Bitcoin investment. In 2024 - 2025 I turned $8k into over $16k with just buying the Bitcoin ETF. Now I am trying to time the perfect trade of Bitcoin ETF to Ethereum ETF and turn my $16k into $32k. Wouldn’t that be nice?

I hope you take this serious and think about this with your own portfolio. Send this to a friend even who is “thinking” about crypto or doesn’t know that this trade is occurring. Eventually, Bitcoin will top out, and you want to make sure you have a plan for when that happens or a way to keep the profits rolling as altcoins climb.

Thanks,

Dawson

P.S. if you’re into stocks, I recently took positions in DOCS and FUBO and am watching some others like RKLB, DDOG, RIVN, and RNW.