If you've been sitting on your hands wondering when Bitcoin will finally start to move again then this post is for you. Because if history rhymes like it usually does, we might be standing at the edge of the next major move. And the reason? Global M2.

Let me explain.

M2: The Hidden Force Behind Bitcoin’s Biggest Moves

Most people watching crypto only look at charts: Price, volume, RSI, fibs, all that jazz. But there’s a deeper, more powerful current flowing beneath the surface within the money supply.

Specifically, Global M2.

M2 is a measure of all the cash, checking deposits, and easily accessible money floating around in the system. When M2 goes up, there's more money sloshing around chasing risk, assets, growth. And historically, Bitcoin has followed that money like a magnet.

Not immediately, though. There’s a lag. And that lag? It’s the key to the entire playbook right now. We can clearly see that money is flowing in the global economy. Historically, as this happens, Bitcoin will follow that money supply higher for a period of time.

Many analysts are suggesting that the time is now.

The 108-Day Lead: When M2 Moves First, Bitcoin Follows

Here’s the deal:

• When you plot Bitcoin’s price against Global M2 with a 108-day lag, things get spooky accurate

• M2 rises... and 108 days later, Bitcoin starts rising

• M2 falls... and 108 days later, Bitcoin gets slapped

It’s not perfect, but it’s been one of the best leading indicators for Bitcoin over the recent year even if the ideal lead time changes over time.

And here’s the important part: Global M2 just broke out to new all-time highs.

That means, if this historical relationship holds up, Bitcoin should start responding right now (or within the next few weeks) and continue rising over the next 100 days or so at the minimum.

We’re already starting to see the first flickers. Bitcoin refusing to break down, some altcoins showing strength, and with M2 at new highs, the fuel is sitting in the tank. Below, you can see today’s Bitcoin price finding its way above the 30 week SMA. Even if it was only a wick today, this could mean a close for Bitcoin above this level later this week or next week. This movement would line up very well with a rising M2.

108 day lead time isn’t the only option though, and it’s not always the most correct version of the leading M2 to Bitcoin timeframe. Over the last two years it has been. So what are the other options people are using? 70 days lag from M2 to Bitcoin movement has been another popular narrative, and if this one is the one you use, you could speculate that the upwards movement of Bitcoin following M2 has already begun.

In this model, Bitcoin should’ve already started responding. And maybe it is just in a bit slower motion. We’re coming off months of consolidation, ETF flows have cooled a bit, and everyone’s bored. But boredom is usually when the real moves are born.

So whether it’s the 70-day or 108-day version, the takeaway is the same: the clock is ticking. If Bitcoin is going to follow M2, it should start picking up steam very soon. And if it doesn’t? Well… let’s talk about that.

What Could Break the M2 Thesis?

Look, no model is perfect. The M2 offset has a strong track record, but it’s not magic. Here are a few things that could short-circuit this whole setup:

1. Liquidity Gets Pulled Back

2. Geopolitical Shocks Like Trade Wars

3. Market Narratives Shift

Even if M2 is rising, if central banks get spooked and start pulling liquidity again, markets could stall. That’s especially true in a scenario where inflation comes roaring back, or the Fed pivots hawkish unexpectedly. War, trade wars, sanctions or any of the global chaos can send money running for cover. M2 rising doesn’t matter if people are fleeing risk assets for safety.

Finally if Jerome Powell and President Trump are not on the same team about the economy, then there could be some big market narrative shifts. There has been a lot of debate about what will happen if President Trump fires Powell and what that will look like for the broader investment market in America.

There’s a lot of uncertainty as usual. I mean next week if the President comes out and says that tariffs with China have come to a mutual resolution, then this whole economy could go back to normal. We really have no true idea.

This move for Bitcoin though, if it continues to follow M2, could provide evidence for a very powerful summer rally by Bitcoin into the rest of the year. I will be watching the price action of Bitcoin, the narratives of the media, and how all of this ties into M2 to provide a leveraged upward movement of Bitcoin.

You don’t need to time the exact breakout day. That’s a losing game. What you want to do is understand the setup and be in position. If M2 is rising to new all-time highs and Bitcoin follows that move with a 70–108 day lag, then the next 100 days could be a blessing in disguise.

It’s the kind of slow start that keeps people on the sidelines until it’s too late.

The data is right in front of us.

M2 is rising. Bitcoin usually follows. And the time window of the lag is starting to close now. Either Bitcoin will validate the thesis or go countertrend.

One other thing I want to mention about M2 is that Bitcoin tends to top at different times than M2, so if you see Bitcoin dropping while the 108 day lead M2 is still rising, it could be a showcase of a potential top in the Bitcoin cycle.

All I know is that if Bitcoin has a catalyst like M2 to push it to new high ground, that would be good for the crypto cycle and altcoins as normal, and it would keep the idea of the 4 year cycle in tact. Some how some way the cycles keep repeating, so I fully expect the same thing to happen now. I am hoping for a cycle top in late 2025, but we will have to see how Bitcoin plays with M2, moving averages, and the economic sphere of the world as we get closer to that timeframe.

Hope you had a good Easter holiday.

Thanks,

Dawson