You’ve probably heard it before. Maybe in a whisper. Maybe in a dream. But yes, the fabled altcoin season is real, and I think it might be back sooner than most people think.

In this post I want to share with you:

1. Why I think altcoin season is around the corner

2. What you can do to prepare and make more money than everyone else

So strap it in! This is probably one of the most important things I could show you this week. If you want to cash some checks, buy some dream items, and pad the old retirement account, I suggest you read on.

Why I Think Altcoin Season Is Around The Corner

1. Bitcoin dominance falling

2. ETH/BTC (and other alt bitcoin pairs rising)

Bitcoin dominance, if you aren’t familiar with it, refers to Bitcoin’s percentage of the total crypto market cap. Today, Bitcoin takes up 62% of the total crypto market cap. In order for altcoin season to happen, Bitcoin must fall in dominance so that altcoins can make up the rest of the total crypto market cap.

Crypto cycle tops have been historically signified by BTC.D reaching 45% or lower. As Bitcoin dominance is showing weakness and breaking below its 10 week moving average below, we can watch how it plays against the 30 & 40 week moving averages to get a sense of if this time is the real altcoin season.

Breaking below the 40 week moving average for two weeks or more could signify this.

As Bitcoin dominance is falling, Ethereum is rising against Bitcoin, confirming this correlation. Look at the ETH/BTC chart. It’s rising as BTC.D is falling. So as Bitcoin is losing market share, Ethereum is taking that market share up along with other altcoins.

It’s no coincidence that this is going hand in hand, and if ETH/BTC can close above its 30 & 40 week moving averages for a couple weeks or more, we could see Ethereum dramatically rise as Bitcoin remains still.

It’s not even just Ethereum. Look at other altcoin charts against Bitcoin in order to signify when they are going up against Bitcoin as well. I know you might think this analysis seems to simple, but I promise it’s far superior to overcomplicating things.

What You Can Do To Prepare & Make Gains

All of this information is great, but what can you do with it to make the most gains possible and protect your downside risk in case we are wrong:

1. Move BTC holdings (if you have them) to ETH (or other altcoins) when timing is right

2. Watch key moving averages to know if this move is sustainable and correct

3. Move from ETH to smaller alts as the altcoin season continues

This is where I usually lose and confuse some people. There’s basically two schools of thought. Buy crypto and never sell (I don’t endorse this). Trade crypto either on longer term or shorter term time horizons. I advocate for “trading” because it allows flexibility even if you only trade like once per year, and it allows for movement in a very volatile crypto market. For example, I bought the FBTC ETF in February 2024. I literally haven’t sold it or done anything with it and am up over 100% on that “trade”. I say this to not scare you when I talk about trading. The way I do it works for long term holds and short term flips.

So number one, you need to watch BTC.D. If it really confirms two to three weeks of closing and rejection below the 40 week moving average, I do think that altcoins perform better than Bitcoin from here on out. What I will do if that happens is probably sell all my FBTC for FETH (Fidelity’s Ethereum ETF).

The second thing you should watch is ETH/BTC. If ETH/BTC can confirm a few weeks close above the 30 & 40 week moving average and make them support, this further confirms that ETH is a better buy than BTC. I’m here to make money, so I will follow this trend. But how can we tell if maybe this isn’t working as expected?

Pretty simple. The price doesn’t go the direction we want. I know that might sound silly, but a lot of people struggle with this. Below is ETH/BTC in 2020 before the major alt season of 2021. We’re hunting for this same setup.

If price gets above the moving averages as shown below in the white circle, we are in a good buy point. This lowers our risk. If we buy and then a week later price tanks and falls below the key moving averages we’ve been talking about, maybe we were simply wrong. In this scenario, I’d just sell and watch the chart more.

Not only can you do this with BTC and ETH, but also very small altcoins in L1 ecosystems. As the altcoin season pushes deeper and deeper into the risk curve, investors will look for smaller and smaller “undiscovered tokens”.

Your opportunity to make the most money possible this cycle, is to watch for this flip between Bitcoin and alts. Move Bitcoin (if you have it) to altcoins that lead, like Ethereum. Over time, as Ethereum moves up, you can then trade that ETH for the next altcoins that are about to move, such as ADA, XRP, SOL, or whatever fits your criteria.

After those move up a bit, the smaller tokens within those ecosystems will move up more to. Your opportunity lies in the ability to move from sector to sector if a trade presents itself.

As you can see below, ADA is currently dropping in value against ETH on the ADA/ETH chart as Ethereum makes this large move upwards. Is this bad for ADA? No! It just simply means that Cardano is not moving up as fast as Ethereum at this moment. If you trade Bitcoin for ETH, you can then hold that ETH and see when it is advantageous to move that ETH to another altcoin, like ADA, as these charts line up in the direction of good momentum.

I know this is a lot of technical talk, but trust me, it is worth it. I hope it makes sense and as always I recommend reading the below 3 books to help clarify exactly how I trade charts. The altcoin season seems to almost be here and if there are a few catalysts in the wind (rate cuts, QE, timing, etc.), it seems like they will show up soon.

1. Trade Like A Stock Market Wizard - by Mark Minervini

2. Secrets to Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets - by Stan Weinstein

3. How to Make Money in Stocks - by William O’Neal

I’d be watching these charts and strategize accordingly. The opportunities are going to present themselves for the taking.

Thanks,

Dawson